- - - Tropical disturbance lurks off Southeast coast. Will it impact your holiday weekend?

Jeanine Santucci, USA TODAY July 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM

Hurricane forecasters have their eyes on a tropical disturbance brewing off the coast of the Southeast United States that has a moderate chance of formation into a cyclone − but could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

Disturbance 1 has about a 50% chance of formation in the next seven days but just a 10% chance over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said on July 3. Regardless of formation, it could have some impacts in the coastal Southeast, particularly in Florida, forecasters said.

It's not a direct threat to Florida in the near future but could bring increased shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week, the Florida Division of Emergency Management said. Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of Southeastern states including Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

Beachgoers in the region over the holiday weekend could experience showers and some thunderstorm activity, along with deteriorating surf conditions, AccuWeather reported.

If clusters of thunderstorms and lowering pressure begin to spin around a center with winds from 35 to 38 mph, the disturbance would be considered a tropical depression, according to the outlet. That could happen over the weekend or early next week as the system moves north or northeast, the hurricane center said.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November.

Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October.

See what's brewing in the AtlanticPrepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

Prepare now for hurricanes: Here's what you should do to stay safe before a storm arrives

Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.

Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you're evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.

Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.

Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.

Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.

A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical disturbance lurks off Southeast coast. Will it make landfall?

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