Are Trump’s Tariffs Not Going To Be So Bad After All? Experts Discuss
- - - Are Trump’s Tariffs Not Going To Be So Bad After All? Experts Discuss
Nicholas MorineJuly 8, 2025 at 12:21 AM
©Ken Cedeno / Pool via CNP / SplashNews.com
With President Donald Trump’s controversial tariff policies fluctuating on a nigh-daily basis, news headlines the world over are dominated by discussion over the potential impacts on the U.S. consumer — and the American economy as a whole.
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And while each news outlet may have its own individual bias regarding the president’s trade policy, experts are keen to weigh in with their own takes as to whether the tariffs will end up being a net positive, net negative, catastrophic or not so bad after all.
What are some of the most credential voices in the proverbial room saying on the tariff file as of late?
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Harvard Law School Event Sees Expert Provide Pros and Cons on Trump Tariffs
During a mid-April event hosted by Harvard Law School, a panel examined the ongoing effects of Trump’s tariff policy, for good or for ill.
The first notable element was the outsized scale of the tariffs as a whole, according to Mark Wu, Henry L. Stimson professor of law at Harvard. Previous administrations, including the administration governing Trump’s first term, were much more restrained in the application of tariffs.
Wu continued to provide a balanced look at the current and future effects of the ongoing tariff situation.
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On the negative side, the professor pointed to increased costs attached to sourcing inputs or parts, particularly from China. Additional costs added to the supply chain leading to the American consumer makes items more costly.
Further, a steep price hike during a period of inflation, could lead to a downturn in demand coming from U.S. shoppers — shoppers fearful of “a recession on the horizon,” as Wu indicated.
However, there is one potential upside.
“As costs go up for your [foreign] competitors, there may be some substituting [toward] those who produce here in the United States. So, we’re seeing these different trends cut against one another,” Wu added, before concluding that market uncertainty had been the result of on-again, off-again trade policy measures.
PBS ‘News Hour’ Debate Sees Clash of Opinion on Tariffs
On Apr. 30, PBS anchor and editor Amna Nawaz hosted Oren Cass of conservative think tank American Compass in addition to Harvard University economist — and former advisor to President Barack Obama — Jason Furman.
Cass underscored the inherent risks of upending a globalist system which had “failed” the American people, describing this move as both necessary and “very good for America in the long run.” The disruption attached to the significant shift in trade policy could, and should be minimized, with communication being key.
Cass pivoted to describing the cooling inflation under Trump’s tenure versus Biden’s presidency, as well as the overall theme of reshoring American manufacturing, with microchips being one example.
“The whole reason to pursue this kind of policy is to really encourage more investment in the United States. And businesses don’t invest based on what the tariff is today. They invest based on what the tariff is going to be in two years, three years, five years,” Cass concluded.
For his part, Furman remained unconvinced of the efficacy of Trump’s tariffs, painting them in a negative light.
The economist spoke to the nature of natural trade imbalances, using Madagascar as one case. Madagascar, being a poorer nation, sells vanilla and cocoa beans to the U.S., while the United States sell Madagascar very little in exchange.
Furman also signaled worry among the investor set surrounding the trade measures, and also underlined the possibility that continued uncertainty — leading to “doom and gloom” — could create “a very large negative demand shock,” and even recession.
“I don’t think it’s a plan because it’s a constantly shifting set of impulses, and they change day to day. Tariffs goes on, tariffs go off,” Furman said.
“And the final thing I’d say is, in the long run, if what this results in is less exports and less imports, because when you have tariffs, you detach yourself from the global economy, that’s bad for workers in export industries, bad for consumers who buy imports, which is all of us,” he added.
Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
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